Ok, for any of you out there thining they were going to duck a bullet in Puerto Vallarta, you are partially right, but mostly wrong.
Hurricane Jova right now looks like it is going to hit the coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta.. Most of what you will be reading has been cut and pasted with web address to visit your self. Updates happen about every six hours, so keep the site and refer back to it as of ten as you like… Here is the latest as of Monday late afternoon….
– East Pacific Major Hurricane Jova will make landfall somewhere on the Pacific coast of central Mexico Tuesday night, probably as a major hurricane, category 3 or stronger
– East Pacific Tropical Storm Irwin is west of and farther offshore than Jova, but will also head toward the Pacific coast of central Mexico and could make landfall there in several days, possibly as only a tropical depression
– Another new eastern Pacific depression has some chance to form east of Jova in the next couple of days, and then move northeastward and affect southeastern Mexico or northern Central America later this week
Check it out here: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html
Here is the Tracking : Click on the pictures to enlarge to readable size…
Here is the 5 day Forecast :
And the series of different computer models on the possible path….. looks like spaghetti to me
You can see Jova will be hitting land around Manzanillo with some forceful winds and swells to around 12 ft. But it sounds like the area around Manzanillo is where it will hit land… which is about 150 miles or so south of us here in PV. Now it could turn north, but with the mountain range around Puerto Vallarta this should protect the bay area, like it always has. That is my call on what is going to happen. If the path follows the southern route we in PV should see a good windy few days with a whole lot of rain, but as far as much damage we should get through this ok… if it follows the southern route. If not, and it move more to the north, we should still be pretty good, but it could get intense. What worries me is the thought of it moving drasticaly to the north and then the storm surge would cause some serious problems. Remember PV is only 20 feet above sea level, so a storm surge and big waves would seriously hurt PV. Now if you are in La Cruz Marina, I would be looking for a open dock in Marina Vallarta which is protected and the only place to be in a storm. But even this could be nasty… very nasty if it comes intot he bay!
Right now it is a big guess… so be prepared with more than cigarettes amigos…. water and food that can be eaten cold is my suggestion… batteries for clocks, radios and flash lights should be stocked up on…. Candles are important and be sure to unplug any electronic device for obvious reasons…
One last thing, the fisherman in me want s to head out, but don´t. The fishing has been incredible as it can get before a big storm or tormenta as they say in spanish. If you can get out after the ¨all clear¨announcemtns, go, it could be some of the bes tfishing you will eve r have a shot at… or not… it `s still fishing amigo.
Below is the official warning as of 9:00 or so tonight…. the latest and scariest is yet to come…
Owner Master Baiter´s Sportfishing and Tackle
http://www.Masterbaiters Stan on Facebook….
http://www.masterbaiters.com.mx web site… official forcast below….
2100 UTC Mon Oct 10 2011 changes in watches and warnings with this advisory... the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes northward to San Blas. Summary of watches and warnings in effect... a Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo Mexico a tropical storm watch is in effect for... * north of Cabo Corrientes northward to San Blas Mexico a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours. Hurricane center located near 16.8n 106.2w at 10/2100z position accurate within 15 nm present movement toward the northeast or 50 degrees at 6 kt estimated minimum central pressure 955 mb eye diameter 15 nm Max sustained winds 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. 64 kt....... 15ne 15se 15sw 15nw. 50 kt....... 40ne 40se 40sw 35nw. 34 kt....... 80ne 80se 80sw 70nw. 12 ft seas..210ne 300se 300sw 120nw. Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant. Repeat...center located near 16.8n 106.2w at 10/2100z at 10/1800z center was located near 16.5n 106.5w forecast valid 11/0600z 17.2n 105.8w Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt. 64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw. 50 kt... 40ne 45se 45sw 40nw. 34 kt... 80ne 90se 90sw 75nw. Forecast valid 11/1800z 18.2n 105.2w Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt. 64 kt... 25ne 25se 20sw 20nw. 50 kt... 45ne 50se 50sw 40nw. 34 kt... 90ne 100se 100sw 85nw. Forecast valid 12/0600z 19.5n 104.7w...inland Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt. 64 kt... 25ne 25se 20sw 20nw. 50 kt... 50ne 55se 55sw 45nw. 34 kt...100ne 110se 110sw 90nw. Forecast valid 12/1800z 21.1n 104.5w...inland Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt. 50 kt... 30ne 50se 50sw 30nw. 34 kt... 60ne 110se 110sw 75nw. Forecast valid 13/1800z 22.7n 104.6w...inland Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt. 34 kt... 20ne 40se 70sw 20nw. Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm on day 4 and 200 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day outlook valid 14/1800z 24.5n 105.0w...Post-trop/remnt low Max wind 20 kt...gusts 30 kt. Outlook valid 15/1800z...dissipated request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.8n 106.2w next advisory at 11/0300z $$ forecaster Stewart