Ready or Not Puerto Vallarta, Here Comes Hurricane Jova, Cat. 3 (10 10 2011)

Ok, for any of you out there thining they were going to duck a bullet in Puerto Vallarta,  you are partially right, but mostly wrong.

Hurricane Jova right now looks like it is going to hit the coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta.. Most of what  you will be reading has been cut and pasted with web address to visit your self. Updates happen about every six hours, so keep the site and refer back to it as of ten as you like… Here is the latest as of Monday late afternoon….

– East Pacific Major Hurricane Jova will make landfall somewhere on the Pacific coast of central Mexico Tuesday night, probably as a major hurricane, category 3 or stronger

– East Pacific Tropical Storm Irwin is west of and farther offshore than Jova, but will also head toward the Pacific coast of central Mexico and could make landfall there in several days, possibly as only a tropical depression

– Another new eastern Pacific depression has some chance to form east of Jova in the next couple of days, and then move northeastward and affect southeastern Mexico or northern Central America later this week

Check it  out  here: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html

Here is the Tracking : Click on the pictures to enlarge to readable size…

Hurricane Jova 10 10 2011

Hurricane Jova 10 10 2011

Here is the 5 day Forecast :

Hurricane Jova 5 Day Tracking forcast 10 10 2011

Hurricane Jova 5 Day Tracking forcast 10 10 2011

Another perspective….

Hurricane Jova 10 10 2011Storm centered satelite image

Hurricane Jova 10 10 2011Storm centered satelite image

 

And the series of different computer models on the possible path….. looks like spaghetti to me

Hurricane Jova Ensemble computer models, White pathe believed probable

Hurricane Jova Ensemble computer models, White pathe believed probable

You can see Jova will be hitting land around Manzanillo with some forceful winds and swells to around 12 ft. But it sounds like the area around Manzanillo is where it will hit land… which is about 150 miles or so south of us here in PV. Now it could turn north, but with the mountain range around Puerto Vallarta this should protect the bay area, like it  always has.  That is my call on what is going  to happen. If the path follows  the southern route we in PV should see a good windy few days with a whole lot of rain, but as far  as much damage we should get through this ok… if it follows the southern  route. If not, and it move more to the north, we should still be pretty good, but it could get intense. What worries me is the thought of it moving drasticaly to the north and then the storm surge would cause some serious problems. Remember PV is only 20  feet above sea level, so a storm surge and big waves would seriously hurt PV. Now if you are in La Cruz Marina, I would be looking for a open dock in Marina Vallarta which is protected and the only place to be in a storm. But even this could be nasty… very nasty if it comes intot he bay!

 

Right  now it is a big guess… so be prepared with more than cigarettes amigos…. water and food that can be eaten cold is my suggestion… batteries for clocks, radios and flash lights should be stocked up on…. Candles are important and be sure to unplug any electronic device for obvious reasons…

 

One last thing, the fisherman in me want s to head out, but don´t. The fishing has been incredible as it can get before a big storm or tormenta as they say in spanish. If you can  get out after the ¨all clear¨announcemtns, go, it could be some of the bes tfishing you will eve r have a shot at… or not… it `s still fishing amigo.

 

Below is the official warning as of 9:00 or so tonight…. the latest  and scariest is yet to come…

Stan

Owner Master Baiter´s Sportfishing and Tackle

http://www.Masterbaiters Stan on Facebook….

http://www.masterbaiters.com.mx web site…  official forcast below….

2100 UTC Mon Oct 10 2011

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes northward to San Blas.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo Mexico

a tropical storm watch is in effect for... * north of Cabo Corrientes northward to San Blas Mexico

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane center located near 16.8n 106.2w at 10/2100z
position accurate within  15 nm

present movement toward the northeast or  50 degrees at   6 kt

estimated minimum central pressure  955 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.
64 kt....... 15ne  15se  15sw  15nw.
50 kt....... 40ne  40se  40sw  35nw.
34 kt....... 80ne  80se  80sw  70nw.
12 ft seas..210ne 300se 300sw 120nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant.  Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 16.8n 106.2w at 10/2100z
at 10/1800z center was located near 16.5n 106.5w

forecast valid 11/0600z 17.2n 105.8w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 20ne  20se  20sw  20nw.
50 kt... 40ne  45se  45sw  40nw.
34 kt... 80ne  90se  90sw  75nw.

Forecast valid 11/1800z 18.2n 105.2w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 25ne  25se  20sw  20nw.
50 kt... 45ne  50se  50sw  40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 100se 100sw  85nw.

Forecast valid 12/0600z 19.5n 104.7w...inland
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 25ne  25se  20sw  20nw.
50 kt... 50ne  55se  55sw  45nw.
34 kt...100ne 110se 110sw  90nw.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 21.1n 104.5w...inland
Max wind  60 kt...gusts  75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne  50se  50sw  30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 110se 110sw  75nw.

Forecast valid 13/1800z 22.7n 104.6w...inland
Max wind  35 kt...gusts  45 kt.
34 kt... 20ne  40se  70sw  20nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm on day 4 and 200 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 14/1800z 24.5n 105.0w...Post-trop/remnt low
Max wind  20 kt...gusts  30 kt.

Outlook valid 15/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.8n 106.2w

next advisory at 11/0300z

$$
forecaster Stewart

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

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