Hurricane Jova (10 11 2011) Weakens a Little, Still a Cat. 2 Hurricane, PV will get Tropical Storm Force Winds and Rain

Below is the link you want to keep in touch with. It is up to the minuet, you can reduce or enlarge the picture and it gives much more visual information as to what is happening with Hurricane Jova. Copy and paste into your browser, you`ll be glad you did, book more the location for future reference. 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=18.3&lon=-105.4&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl

It looks like Jova will enter the mainland around Manzanillo and may go towards the south or straight in to the center of Mexico . Most models are showing the Hurricane or Tropical storm as it reaches the Puerto Vallarta area hitting us in PV around 2 p.m. Wednesday afternoon with diminished winds of Tropical Storm Force, much weaker than full Hurricane force. Once Jova makes land it is expected to rapidly weaken to a cat. 1 as it continues to weaken as it marches along.

Presently: The storm has dropped in strength (weakened) to a Catagory 2 from a  Catagory 3 yesterday.  This is a little strange since the warmer water close to shore should reinforce this storm. But it has been working now for almost a week and with a little luck may hit  the coast with Tropical Storm force. We would be lucky if this happens amigos. PV would then be ou t of the woods. Yes we will get our hair blown around but the fact is the Hurricane is running out of gas as we speak. It can change in a heart beat for the worse so keep your ears open.

By now  you should be prepared with the essentials like water, batteries, no refrigerated foods, Candles, charged computers and cell phones is a good idea. You should expect power outages for what could be possibly days because the whole area will be pounded for a couple of days and I can not imagine we will get through this with electricity.

This is part of the public warning issued by the authorities:

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of 
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Rainfall...Jova is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over the states of michoacan...
 Colima...Jalisco... and nayarit...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains could cause 
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
Surf...swells generated by Jova are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

All the area warnings are posted below the pictures of the hurricane track if you want to read them.

Here is the latest and greatest tracking models and forecast:Click on the photo to enlarge for easier reading as you move along…..

Hurricane Jova 10 11 2011

Hurricane Jova 10 11 2011

Your 5 day model / forecast:

Hurricane Jova 10 11 2011 5 day forecast

Hurricane Jova 10 11 2011 5 day forecast

And your  computer models, if this does not confuse you nothing will, A computers best guess for  sure!

Hurricane Jova 10 11 2011 computer Models

Hurricane Jova 10 11 2011 computer Models

There you go, make good use of these projections. They are the best we have available for now.

Below is Jovas projected or Probable wind speeds by area.  You will notice PV is looking like it will get wet and windy, but we may just dodge another weather bullet… check it out below:

2100 UTC Tue Oct 11 2011
at 2100z the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 18.3
north...longitude 105.4 west with maximum sustained winds near 85
kts...100 mph...160 km/h.
Z indicates coordinated Universal time (greenwich)
   Pacific  daylight time (pdt)...subtract  7 hours from z time
   Hawaiian Standard time (hst)...subtract 10 hours from z time
I.  Maximum wind speed (intensity) probability table
chances that the maximum sustained (1-minute average) wind speed of
the tropical cyclone will be within any of the following categories
at each official forecast time during the next 5 days.
Probabilities are given in percent.  X indicates probabilities less
than 1 percent.
- - - Maximum wind speed (intensity) probabilities - - -
valid time   06z Wed 18z Wed 06z Thu 18z Thu 18z Fri 18z Sat 18z sun
forecast hour   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
dissipated       x       1      30      47      na      na      na
trop depression  x      17      38      25      na      na      na
tropical storm  13      61      18      14      na      na      na
hurricane       87      21      14      14      na      na      na
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Hur Cat 1       60      15      10       8      na      na      na
Hur Cat 2       24       4       3       3      na      na      na
Hur Cat 3        3       2       1       2      na      na      na
Hur Cat 4        x       x       x       x      na      na      na
Hur Cat 5        x       x       x       x      na      na      na
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
fcst Max wind   85kt    50kt    30kt    25kt    na      na      na
ii. Wind speed probability table for specific locations
chances of sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds of at least
   ...34 kt (39 mph... 63 kph)...
   ...50 kt (58 mph... 93 kph)...
   ...64 kt (74 mph...119 kph)...
for locations and time periods during the next 5 days
probabilities for locations are given as ip(cp) where ip is the probability of the event beginning during an 
individual time period (individual probability) (cp) is the probability of the event occurring between 18z Tue 
and the forecast hour (cumulative probability)
probabilities are given in percent
x indicates probabilities less than 1 percent
probabilities for 34 kt and 50 kt are shown at a given location when
the 5-day cumulative probability is at least 3 percent.
Probabilities for 64 kt are shown when the 5-day cumulative
probability is at least 1 percent.
- - - - Wind speed probabilities for selected  locations - - - -
from    from    from    from    from    from    from
  time       18z Tue 06z Wed 18z Wed 06z Thu 18z Thu 18z Fri 18z Sat
periods         to      to      to      to      to      to      to
             06z Wed 18z Wed 06z Thu 18z Thu 18z Fri 18z Sat 18z sun
forecast hour    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
location       kt
Mazatlan       34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   6(15)   x(15)   x(15)   x(15)
Mazatlan       50  x   x( x)   1( 1)   2( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)
San Blas       34  5  18(23)  11(34)   3(37)   x(37)   x(37)   x(37)
San Blas       50  1   2( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   x(13)   x(13)   x(13)
San Blas       64  x   x( x)   1( 1)   1( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)

 p vallarta 34 43 29(72) 3(75) x(75) x(75) x(75) x(75)
 p vallarta 50 2 15(17) 4(21) 2(23) x(23) x(23) x(23)
 p vallarta 64 x x( x) 1( 1) 1( 2) x( 2) x( 2) x( 2)

 barra Navidad  34 98   2(99)   x(99)   x(99)   x(99)   x(99)   x(99)
barra Navidad  50 75   8(83)   x(83)   x(83)   x(83)   x(83)   x(83)
barra Navidad  64  3   1( 4)   x( 4)   x( 4)   x( 4)   x( 4)   x( 4)
Manzanillo     34 94   3(97)   x(97)   x(97)   x(97)   x(97)   x(97)
Manzanillo     50 32   8(40)   x(40)   x(40)   x(40)   x(40)   x(40)
Manzanillo     64  1   1( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)
l Cardenas     34  3   2( 5)   x( 5)   1( 6)   x( 6)   x( 6)   x( 6)
Zihuatanejo    34  2   1( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)
Islas Marias   34  4  10(14)   9(23)   3(26)   x(26)   x(26)   x(26)
Islas Marias   50  x   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   x(11)   x(11)   x(11)
Islas Marias   64  x   x( x)   1( 1)   1( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)   x( 2)

$$
forecaster Beven  

Here is your Marine Forcast:
2100 UTC Tue Oct 11 2011

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

none

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo Mexico * north of
 Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito Mexico

hurricane center located near 18.3n 105.4w at 11/2100z
position accurate within  20 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or  30 degrees at   5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure  973 mb
eye diameter  15 nm
Max sustained winds  85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
64 kt....... 15ne  15se  15sw  15nw.
50 kt....... 40ne  40se  40sw  40nw.
34 kt....... 90ne  90se  80sw  80nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 300se 300sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant.  Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 18.3n 105.4w at 11/2100z
at 11/1800z center was located near 17.9n 105.5w

forecast valid 12/0600z 19.3n 105.0w
Max wind  85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 15ne  15se  15sw  15nw.
50 kt... 35ne  40se  40sw  40nw.
34 kt... 75ne  90se  80sw  80nw.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 20.4n 104.8w...inland
Max wind  50 kt...gusts  60 kt.
50 kt... 15ne  15se  15sw  15nw.
34 kt... 50ne  90se  80sw  60nw.

Forecast valid 13/0600z 21.4n 104.8w...inland
Max wind  30 kt...gusts  40 kt.

Forecast valid 13/1800z 22.2n 104.8w...inland Post-trop/remnt low
Max wind  25 kt...gusts  35 kt.

Forecast valid 14/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 18.3n 105.4w

next advisory at 12/0300z

$$
forecaster Beven

And the Public Warning: 

...Center of category two Hurricane Jova moving toward the coast of
Mexico...
summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.3n 105.4w
about 85 mi...140 km SW of Manzanillo Mexico
about 145 mi...235 km S of Cabo Corrientes Mexico
maximum sustained winds...100 mph...160 km/h
present movement...NNE or 30 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h
minimum central pressure...973 mb...28.73 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
none
summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of
Punta San Telmo Mexico * north of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito Mexico
for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 18.3 north...longitude 105.4 west.
 Jova is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph...9 km/h...and this motion is expected to continue with an 
increase in forward speed this evening. A turn toward the north is expected later tonight or on Wednesday. On the
 forecast track...the center of the hurricane will cross the coast of Mexico tonight...and move over western Mexico
 Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/h...with higher
gusts.  Jova is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible before
landfall...with weakening expected after the center crosses the
coast.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105
miles...165 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb...28.73 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are spreading onto the coast of
Mexico in the southern portion of the warning area and will spread
northward through the remainder of the warning area tonight.
Hurricane conditions are forecast to reach the coast within the
Hurricane Warning area during the evening.
Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of
 where the center makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Rainfall...Jova is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over the states of michoacan...
Colima...Jalisco... and nayarit...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.

 Surf...swells generated by Jova are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory...800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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